Why you Should Probably Take Statistics in High School

  Mark Twain once famously said, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” Perhaps the sentiment he is implying there wouldn’t be quite so true if probability and statistics were taught to more students.

Statistics is the practice of collecting and analyzing data and using that information to infer proportions in a whole from a representative sample. That practice is quite different from what happens in other kinds of math, but it is no less important. Most American students will touch on statistics early on in school. They might encounter some basic problems like, “if I have ten marbles in a box and six of them are red and four of the blue what is the chance I pull out a blue one?” However, as they get deeper into grade school and into high school they are very likely to skew away from statistical instruction. Indeed, no state currently requires that high school students take a course in statistics but many do require credits in other courses like algebra and geometry. As a result, students are far more likely to encounter geometry and algebra in middle school. 

Geometry is kind of a one-off and many high school students will study it for a year. High School students who do well in math tend to eventually be fast-tracked to Algebra 2 and from there, trigonometry and calculus are natural progressions. Probability and statistics are kind of like the town that gets bypassed by the railroad tracks and not enough students are taking a detour to get there.

The problem with this is that statistics is an extremely practical math. The American Statistical Association lists about 150 broad college majors that are likely to require a college-level course in statistics. Far less require calculus or trigonometry and those that do may well also require statistics. Anyone who might have to read a study or report that speaks to some collection of data will likely benefit from some understanding of statistics and that happens in countless careers that require a college degree. Actually, I might be hard-pressed to think of one career that would never require someone such a report. 

Still, outside of colored marbles in bags, the first time the majority of American students study probability and statistics deeply is at the college level. Encountering a new kind of math for the first time in college does not likely lend itself to the best possible outcome. Even getting into college could be an issue. Here is a stat for you, about 30% of the math questions on the SAT relate to statistics or data analysis.

The good news is that while no high school requires statistics, many do offer it. So, the simple solution to all of this is to take the statistics class your high school offers. You have to take some math anyway and this should count for that. You’ll be better prepared when you likely have to take a statistics class in college and even if you don’t, you’ll be a more well-rounded mathematics student for the rest of your life. Probably.

Walking Away from Childhood Sports and Activities

            Across America, most children participate in some activity outside of school. Youth sports, where American families spend about $40 billion a year, is an example but musical lessons, dance lessons, and other activities are also included in the kinds of things parents use to fill their children’s time. Some families throw their lives into these things as they coordinate their careers around driving children to practices every day after school and spending whole weekends traveling hours away from home to competitions and showcases. Those travels can come at great expense and there are additional costs related to training and equipment. With that being said, it’s no surprise that these activities can become intertwined with the very fabric of a young person’s identity.

This can be especially true for a student who excels locally at a sport or other talent. Perhaps early on there are hopes of grandeur, but the truth is that very few of us can make a living off of the activities that we invest so much of our childhood in. Often this truth slowly becomes increasingly apparent as childhood wanes and high school graduation approaches. Navigating the emotional toll of that requires a special touch.

This realization can be tough on parents as well. That can be especially true for parents who felt like the investments they made in their children’s activities would pay off in the form of college scholarships. However, few are the gross number of scholarships available at all colleges and universities nationwide in “non-revenue” activities such as diving, gymnastics, or playing the violin to name a few examples. Even in big revenue sports like football, only Division 1 colleges and universities award true athletic scholarships and those are reserved for very elite athletes. Ultimately, the number of people who are able to leverage their childhood activity into paying for all or most of their college expenses is very small compared to the number of people who participate in those activities.

By junior year, many students and parents will start to figure out that they’re probably not going to participate in the Olympics or be signing with an agent. After all that hard work, maybe they’re just a pretty decent high school soccer player and that’s the end of it. Still, there might be little soccer balls or something on everything in a young person’s room and everything they seem to know about who they are is somehow stamped with soccer. A family might find themselves asking how can this person exist without that personal brand. Therefore, they might convince themselves that they need to move twelve states away to some town they’ve never heard of and play for a tiny college that offers them a glorified coupon in the form of an $8,000 academic scholarship even though tuition is $65,000 a year. 

No, you don’t have to do that. It’s okay for you to lay these dreams down. You can still be a worthwhile person if your childhood activity is no longer a leading part of your everyday life. Whatever that activity was, it can still be a hobby for you. You can find outlets to dabble in it. It just doesn’t have to define you anymore. The time, money, and effort you spent on it wasn’t a waste if you don’t go all-pro. It will always be an important part of your childhood, and certainly there were good lessons and discipline that came from it. However, those activities don’t have to be central to your adulthood. Parents and new young adults, it’s okay to think about college and a life beyond that doesn’t include your childhood activities.

The FAFSA Simplification Act Explained

           A couple of years ago, Congress passed the FAFSA Simplification Act (FSA) with an effective date of July 1, 2023. That date is now upon us, so let’s take a look at the changes in FAFSA we can expect to see.

For starters, as the act’s name implies, it’s just going to be easier to fill out. The application itself will be reduced from over 100 questions to around 40. Hopefully, that change alone can significantly increase the number of students who complete the FAFSA. 

Many changes probably affect a small number of applicants but are nonetheless important. Students will now find more access to complete the FAFSA as independent students. Those who are orphaned, homeless, or in other special circumstances will find it simpler to complete the FAFSA without parental involvement. This doesn’t affect many people, but the process was very burdensome for those who it did–a group that needed financial aid as much as anyone. 

One of the biggest changes FAFSA will make is to the Expected Family Contribution or EFC. This was the amount of money the FAFSA determined families were expected to pay out of pocket for their child’s educational expenses before financial aid kicked in. The EFC is being replaced by the Student Aid Index or SAI. The SAI still provides a number that indicates a family’s share of the financial burden it takes to send their children to college, but the components used to derive that number have been modified. Simply put, these modifications within the SAI should have the effect of providing more aid to more students. One benefit that stood out to me here is that “money paid on a student’s behalf” no longer counts as income in the SAI as it did in the EFC. This would include money paid by a grandparent, for example, for the student to continue their education.

Maybe the changes aren’t all great though. One negative I see is the way the redesigned FAFSA treats families with multiple students in college. Previously, when a second child entered college the EFC was essentially divided by two (or by however many children were in college). That provision is being eliminated which will negatively impact some families and essentially remove a discount those who had their children close together used to receive. 

Overall though, these changes are good. FAFSA projects about 15% more students will receive Pell Grants than they did previously, other students will receive more aid than before, more students still (like those who are incarcerated) will be eligible for aid to begin with, and the whole application process is just more transparent and simpler for all applicants.

Lastly, there is one more significant change that hopefully is only temporary. For the past several years, FAFSA has opened on October 1st to apply for aid for the following school year. FAFSA has signaled they are running behind on implementing all these changes. Thus, it is very likely FAFSA will open a little later than usual.

How to decide to submit scores to test-optional schools

  When the pandemic hit, national test centers closed which meant high school students were unable to take SAT and ACT. This significantly accelerated a trend in college admissions that had been gaining ground over the years. Without test scores for many applicants, many college admissions made the submission of SAT and/or ACT scores an optional part of a complete application. Even though test centers are back open, many schools have remained test-optional, so how is a student to know if they should submit their score or not?

For starters, I think a lot of students (but not all of them) undervalue their test scores. Maybe their friend has a better score, but that doesn’t mean their own is worthless. The truth is what constitutes a “good” score is entirely relative to what you are trying to do. Therefore, the first step in evaluating your own score and deciding if you should submit it or not is to pinpoint what it is you are trying to do. So, let’s say your main goal is to be accepted to State University. Colleges and universities typically publish a middle range of scores that their previous freshmen class had. Google around and you should be able to find this pretty easily for your desired school. So, let’s say that State U’s middle range of SAT scores last year was 1100-1270. This means that 25%-75% of admitted freshmen on campus had an SAT score in this range. Another way to say this is one in four freshmen had numbers better than this range, but one in four had a lower score than the range. 

If your score is in the range of the school you want to go to–in this example let’s say you have an 1150–I think you have a good score. Perhaps the middle range of the State U in a neighboring state is 1380-1440. Well, suddenly your 1150 is kind of weak. Again, a “good” score is relative to what you’re trying to do. You have to figure this out before you decide whether to submit your score to a test-optional college. 

I believe that if your score is in a given school’s middle range (or above it), then you have a “good” score, and submitting it can support your application. If your score is below that range, it might be best to withhold your score and attempt to highlight your other strengths on your application. You can make this decision individually for each college or university you are applying to. So, your score might be “good” for that school in your own state in which case I think you should submit it, but if the school in the next state over has stricter admission standards it might be best to hold back your score there. 

Whatever the case, as a university admission rep once told me, “Once we see something, we can’t unsee it.” So, do your research on what kind of score a given school is looking for and make your test submission decision accordingly.

Getting Caught Up For Students Who Are Behind

       It is inevitable that some students will take a few missteps along the way as they move through high school. They might fail a class or do very poorly in one. This can set them off course for graduation and increase the work they need to do going forward to get back on track. Here’s a look at some steps to take to do that.

A wise person once told me, “the first rule of digging holes is to stop digging”. Indeed, if a student finds themself off course for graduation, the very first they should do is avoid doing anything else that will set them further off course. Examine the circumstances that lead to your downfall. If you didn’t do much work for a few weeks, double down on your efforts. If your test grades were your downfall, focus on studying for those. If attendance was the culprit, be on time every time.

If you’re able to clear that hurdle, and the hole isn’t getting any deeper, you can begin working to get out of the one you’re in. If a student fails a course here or there and it is one that is required for graduation, they will likely need to retake that course. This usually isn't comfortable. A student who failed freshmen English, for example, might need to retake that class at the same time they are taking sophomore English. That’s usually not preferred for someone who probably doesn’t like English in the first place, but our failures seldom come without consequences. 

Age is usually a consideration here as well. Few people will be excited to still be working in a high school curriculum much beyond their 18th or 19th birthday. In some settings, they may even be prohibited from staying enrolled beyond a certain age. So, there just may not be time for a young person to get too far off course, and still have time to get back on track. For example, Algebra 1 is the first step in the math sequence for many high schools with four required math credits. If a student is expected to graduate in four years, there may not be time for them to take and fail algebra 1, retake it, and then move on, especially more than once. So, there are scenarios where a school is going to ask a student to retake algebra 1 and move them on to algebra 2 at the same time. 

Lastly, students should keep an eye on GPAs. Schools often have required minimum GPAs to graduate. Poor GPAs can be harder to mend because that process often takes time. GPAs are cumulative across a student's full high school career. Thus, a student who spent 3 years building an awful GPA, might not be able to fix that in a year. Again, the first rule of digging holes is to stop digging and students must be careful to not take out more dirt than they can put back in.

If a student does find themself behind, it’s important to speak to a school counselor or administrator quickly who can help create a specific plan to get a student back on track. However, It will ultimately be up to the student to do the work that makes that plan successful. 

but what's REALLY the difference in the ACT and SAT

      A common question any high school counselor might receive is, “what’s the difference between the ACT and the SAT”? It’s easy to give a cursory response here and talk about the differences in scoring, the structure of the tests, and timing. Those things are a very important part of explaining the differences, but they might not get to the root of the question which could be better asked as, “how do the tests differ in the way they are constructed as they attempt to reflect the abilities of a student”? So, let’s try to answer that more complex question (well, in about 500 words, so I’m going to focus on the verbal parts of the test here).

In my view, to put it in as simple terms as possible, this is a matter of 1. quality vs. quantity, and 2. testing what you already know vs. what you might be capable of coming to know. My opinion here really stems from the SAT's emphasis on what they call “Command of Evidence.” In the College Board’s own words, “the SAT asks you to pay attention to how authors use support in text that cover a range of subjects and styles.” The SAT requires test takers to take a deep dive into tables, graphs, and charts. It requires you to use those to make connections to the text and identify evidence that best supports the author's point of view. In other words, can you read something and flesh out the most important information therein? They incorporate this same skill into the parts of the SAT that relate to a student’s writing skills. 

A good illustration of how the tests differ in their approach is seen in the way they evaluate a student’s science aptitude. The ACT has a specific 35 minutes science section on the exam. It certainly requires students to be able to use charts and data to draw conclusions and synthesize information, but it also requires more prior knowledge across a range of science disciplines. On the SAT, there is no science section but students can expect to see some reading passages that require a little science know-how to get through. In this way, the ACT is a little more interested in determining what you already about science whereas the SAT leans more towards discovering a student’s ability to think scientifically. 

We further see these differences in the way scores are reported. The ACT reports a single score for each of its sub-sections (English, Math, Reading, Science, and an optional Writing section). To get your overall ACT score, you simply average these subscores. The SAT actually produces 15 different subscores. The way they do this reminds me a lot of how a butcher works. If I slice up an animal this way and include this muscle, this cut of meat is called a whatever, but if I slice it like that and don’t include that, the cut is called this other thing and has different qualities. The SAT slices up the same big test several different ways and produces different scores. So, for science, for example, they slice out the questions related to those science passages and use that to produce a science score as one of the 15 subscores.

The tests are both good indicators of a student's knowledge and ability to think, but they get to that a little differently. I’ve never gotten the sense that colleges prefer one over the other, they are mostly interested in how a student performs against their peers. I believe the best practice is for students to take both and then make additional attempts at whichever one they prefer. 

How Colleges Use Statistics

          It is winter time and in the sports world, that means the baseball off-season is in full swing. If you follow the sport closely, you also must have some level of interest in statistics. Statistics reign supreme both on the diamond and off. Indeed, as described in the book and film “Moneyball”, baseball clubhouses have taken deep dives into a variety stats to improve their teams. College admissions offices have taken note.

Obviously, post-secondary schools examine the individual statistics of applicants as they make decisions but their use of stats is much broader than that. For instance, testing services that publish the SAT and ACT ask survey questions of test takers that they turn around and sell to colleges and universities. So, if I’m a university in the mid-Atlantic and my engineering department wants to extend our reach into the gulf states, I can ask for and purchase a list of high school students in those states who have expressed an interest in engineering, taken at least five high school math classes, and scored at least a 650 on the math portion of the SAT. Then, I can send those students targeted information about my school. This might seem off-putting to some, but I think it’s a good thing. If you want to be an engineer and there’s a school you haven’t heard of out there that trains engineers and that is looking for someone just like you, I think it’s good for you to interact. I always encourage my students to answer those survey questions faithfully and opt-in to data shares the SAT and ACT offer. You’re going to get some more mail in the process but just throw it away if you don’t like it.

Colleges also track what happens at individual high schools. If you are a student from a high school that sends students to a given college regularly, the college has that school figured out. Montana State probably doesn’t know much if anything about the school I work at in Florida, but I’m sure Florida State knows precisely who we are. Colleges are tracking the outcomes of students from specific high schools. Student A could have a 4.4 weighted GPA and solid test scores, student B could have a 4.1 GPA and about the same scores. But, if student A is from a high school where one in three students don’t make it to their junior year at that college because they flunk out, but student B is from a high school whose students have a sterling track record, it’s easy for the college to assume that student B’s high school is doing a better job preparing its students. Therefore, those students might be given more grace in their individual statistics as a result. The stats a college keeps on high schools can be scant or quite robust depending on the philosophy of that admissions department, but rest assured they are all paying a little attention to where you’re from.

Having said all of that, a student usually can’t control what high school they attend and what goes on in that school. All they can do is make the best of what they have. To put it back in baseball terms, the outfields at some high schools are larger than others, all you can do is try to hit home runs in the ballpark you find yourself in.